One of the more unique attributes of the video game industry is the extent to which people make year-end predictions. Every December, hundreds, if not thousands, of articles are published with predictions for the coming year; something that simply does not happen in consumer packaged goods, for example (nobody’s out here publishing “10 wild predictions about laundry detergent in 2026”).
Gaming is also an unusually volatile industry. Things change constantly. As a result, many of the predictions are wrong. Nobody looks like a prophet one year later, and many major industry events simply were not on anyone’s list. This last point is particularly interesting — we looked and couldn’t find a single set of predictions for 2025 that included the recent partnership between Unity and Unreal (which is arguably one of the five most important events to happen in gaming in 2025).
Unity and Epic Games today announced they are working together to bring Unity games into Fortnite, creating more opportunity and value for players and developers. Developers will have the ability to publish Unity games into Fortnite, one of the world’s largest gaming ecosystems with more than 500 million registered accounts worldwide, and participate in the Fortnite Creator Economy.
Our 2025 predictions, made in late 2024, are also a great example of this. While six of the seven predictions we made were correct, we missed three huge trends (two of which were directly in our field of expertise). So, maybe we get a 60% correct score (which, given industry volatility, feels like a solid B+).
This industry-wide habit of predicting the future is a good thing. How do you model the future in a highly volatile industry? The best way is to have lots of people make lots of predictions (ideally, as independently as possible), and then look for patterns and themes. In practice, the gaming industry has stumbled into a superforecasting-style yearly tournament. As the people from D-Lab put it:
While many domains still rely heavily on the opinions of credentialed experts – pundits, analysts, and consultants – an alternative solution has gained traction: crowdsourcing the predictions and then aggregating the collective wisdom. Scholars of collective intelligence have long posited that the aggregation of diverse, independent opinions can often outperform even the most sophisticated and knowledgeable individual experts, particularly in highly uncertain domains. Moreover, the fallacy and biases of expertise have become increasingly apparent across a wide range of fields.
In keeping with our recent tradition, we are also going to include instant reactions from ChatGPT personas (in this case, we asked ChatGPT to assume the personas of a CEO of a mid-sized gaming company and an industry pundit knowledgeable in the specific prediction area).
Our (AI) Expert Panel, Debating Furiously
And now, without any further ado… here are seven things that are really, absolutely, 100%, beyond a shadow of a doubt going to happen in 2026.
We’re leaning into that 3.2% number for 2024 (and the associated 3.4% for 2025). While the headcount reductions will continue, revenue will continue to climb. And while there is substantial skepticism around Owen Mahoney’s prediction that game industry revenue will triple in the next 5 to 7 years, the smart money is on the rate of revenue growth increasing as well. It might be too much to expect double-digit revenue growth, but we think Mahoney is directionally correct and that 7% to 10% seems likely.
(update Dec 21: The ‘final’ numbers for 2025 are starting to come in and 2025 actually grew at 7.5% according to NewZoo. If anything, this emphasizes that we are switching into a bull market in 2027 and beyond)
At the same time, under the hood, expensive senior staff have been laid off, mid‑career folks are being inexorably squeezed, and much of the “missing” capacity is being replaced by AI tools, outsourcing networks, and a more flexible contractor/remote workforce. This looks like a stable equilibrium where investors get the margin expansion they want, players keep getting content, and the labor market continues to shrink.
Our expert panel was in complete agreement:
CEO. This is pretty much what I’m planning for. Our board wants us to show operating leverage: flat or slightly lower headcount while revenue grows. The 2025 data is already clear— industry layoffs in the tens of thousands, but market forecasts are back in growth mode. So in 2026 I have to assume capital markets will reward lean teams that adopt AI, automation, and external partners rather than rebuilding the 2021 org chart.
The upshot: in 2026, “mobile games veteran” on a LinkedIn profile will be a strong signal for senior roles in growth for almost any consumer application (this also combines nicely with prediction #7’s continued workforce contraction in gaming).
Here’s how our expert panel sees it:
CEO. This one is already biting us. I’m losing UA and growth PMs to non‑gaming apps that offer better comp, fewer content fires, and less hit‑driven risk. I’m running lean and these losses hurt. The Deconstructor of Fun article on Duolingo, DraftKings, and Tinder really underlines how aggressively these adjacent verticals are pulling from the game design and UA toolkit.
Pundit. The prediction is directionally right, but I’d widen it. It’s not just staffing migration; it’s strategy migration. Engagement mechanics from mobile games are showing up in top non‑gaming apps, and the people driving those efforts are often ex‑games PMs and UA leads.
5. Mobile Ads Will Continue to Get Weirder
Let’s be clear: when you compare mobile game advertising in 2025 to mobile game advertising in 2020 (or even to mobile game advertising in 2024), the rate of change is astonishing. Playable ads and mini‑games have become standard tools for serious UA teams and the creative envelope keeps being pushed by AI‑generated actors, deepfake‑style influencer clones, interactive AR lenses, and boundary‑pushing “shock” concepts. Things are already pretty weird.
Moreover, current data shows a strong performance advantage for interactive/playable formats and the continued arms race in creative volume; at the same time, regulators are reacting to deceptive or offensive ads, as in the UK ASA’s crackdown on sexualized mobile ads. At this point, the best mobile ads are more like a short piece of interactive entertainment—or uncanny AI spectacle—than a traditional banner ad or static video. Half the time, players remember the ad better than the game it’s selling (which is both impressive and slightly terrifying).
To understand what’s going to happen in 2026, let’s briefly review what Meta has been doing in 2024 and 2025:
Meta has already rolled out tools that let advertisers feed in a few basic ingredients—like a product image, brand assets, and a short text prompt—and then the system automatically creates multiple ad variations using AI. These variants are then tested in real time across placements and Meta’s Advantage + system automatically prioritizes the formats and creatives that perform best.
Meta is also gradually removing advertisers’ ability to manually tune targeting (whether by specifying demographic criteria or by managing exclusions). The vision is clear: instead of an advertiser manually picking narrow audiences based on demographic criteria, the advertiser will feed Meta signals (creative variations, objectives, first‑party data, product catalogs, conversion events, and measures of the user’s value), and Meta systems will automatically slice users into countless “micro‑segments” on the fly, constantly shifting budget toward the most responsive micro-segments.
The prediction that Meta will engage in cross-advertiser learning for both content generation and targeting. We don’t know how much they’re doing this today, but it is inevitable (and it seems like an inevitable consequence of GEM, their new “Foundation Model for Ads”). They won’t share the semantic models with their advertisers, but they will build them.
The prediction that the combination of having the cost of creative generation go to zero, the ability to understand and target creative to micro-segments, and the ability to learn targeting across all the advertisers will lead to a feedback loop that will create and reward highly differentiated content as long as it appeals to users.
The claim that the other advertising networks (especially the SRNs) are not far behind and will also roll out similar tools.
The net effect will be an avalanche of unusual, obscure, and creative ads. In many, if not most, cases the ad will be more interesting than the games.
Our expert panel thought long and hard about this one:
4. GTA-6 Will Ship and the LiveOps Backlash Will End
The prediction here isn’t just “GTA-6 actually makes its latest launch deadline” (though this prediction will be wrong if that doesn’t happen).
Given GTA history and Take‑Two’s massive expectations, GTA-6 is almost guaranteed to lean on long‑tail monetization. Rockstar will thread the needle with a strong core game, cosmetic‑heavy monetization, and a steady cadence of content that will once again prove that Live Services, done well, are key to both building a long-term community and effective monetization (note that if you’re reading this and trying to figure out whether to invest in Take Two, we strongly suggest reading Joost Van Dreunen’s take on the situation).
And this will finally normalize large‑scale live operations for premium games in a way players accept. After several years of backlash (see also: here and here) against poorly executed live‑service titles— roadmaps scrapped, servers shut down, exploitative monetization—GTA-6 will arrive as a $70+ box product with a robust single‑player experience and an evolving online/live‑ops layer that actually delivers value.
Here’s how our expert panel reacted to this prediction:
CEO. If Rockstar pulls this off, it will help executives like me argue that ‘live ops’ isn’t inherently evil—it’s just usually done badly. Right now, I look at consumer sentiment and developer surveys and see real fatigue: developers saying they don’t want to make their next project live service, and articles cataloguing the ‘life and death’ of shut‑down games.
Pundit. The delay to November 2026 actually strengthens the logic of this prediction. Take‑Two is clearly optimizing for quality and long‑term impact. Meanwhile, live‑service fatigue is very real in 2025. You can see it in opinion pieces warning of burnout and monetization pressure, and in the number of live‑service games quietly shutting down.
3. Apple Will Drop the Standard Rate to 15% for Everyone. Google will be a Fast Follower
Apple’s original policy for processing payments was simple: applications distributed through Apple’s App Store were required to use Apple to process any in-app transactions involving digital goods. And Apple took 30% of every transaction (a policy that was modelled on Facebook Credits)
For the past 10 years, Apple has been under extraordinary pressure to allow developers to use alternative payment systems (e.g. not use Apple to process transactions).
In the EU, Apple was found to violate the Digital Markets Act (EU, Apple, Brookings). Note that the EU also opened “additional non-compliance investigation(s).”
In the United States, the resolution of the various lawsuits has opened up a landgrab for alternative payment systems.
As a result of these changes, Apple has been slowly losing market share. Publishers, rightly, see the opportunity to move from a 30% fee to a 5% fee (Naavik estimates 3 to 4%) as extraordinarily compelling. Apple hasn’t moved quickly because of the enormous volume of purchases made through Apple’s App Store— lowering 30% to 15% is significant, even to Apple. Their long-term choice is clear: either lower the overall rate from 30% to a more competitive number or see most transactions move off their platform.
Note also that Apple has already been lowering their rate for very specific carveouts. Here’s a snapshot of their current policy:
This prediction is simply that, in the face of ongoing pressure, declining market share, and increasing payments policy complexity, Apple moves to a universal 15% fee in 2026. And, of course, once they do so, Google will follow quickly.
Our expert panel wasn’t surprised, but was surprisingly cool to this prediction:
CEO. As a CEO running a portfolio of F2P and hybrid-casual titles, a universal 15% is… nice, but not life-changing. It’s a few extra points of margin, which matters at scale, but it doesn’t fundamentally change how hard it is to build a profitable game in 2026.
Pundit. Dropping to a flat 15% for everyone is less a revolution and more the end of a very long, very public negotiation between Apple, regulators, and the ecosystem. For years, the real story has been erosion of the 30% norm: carve-outs for small devs, sweetheart deals for big media partners, regional compliance hacks after the DMA, and mounting legal pressure in the US and EU.
2. Elon Musk Will Begin to Talk Extensively about the Neuralink as the Ultimate Gaming Platform
Neural Control of a Fighting Game (Where Reaction Time Really Matters)
Our prediction is simply that this conversation hits the mainstream, shepherded by Elon, in the second half of 2026.
After they finished snorting coffee through their noses (and then wiping up the mess; our expert panel seems to be composed of neat-freaks), our expert panel reacted to this prediction:
Pundit. This wasn’t on my radar. But you’re right. In 2026, ‘ultimate gaming platform’ will mostly be rhetoric and early lab demos. But the idea will be in the cultural water, which matters a lot for how investors and big platforms think about the 2030s.
All this time later, the PS5 is easily my most used console, but – as a straightforward replacement for the PS4 – it’s not felt like an earth-shattering generational shift.
All of this is to say that there’s a certain amount of pressure for the PS6 to be awesome, not incremental.
So, while Sony’s historical cadence of seven‑year console cycles points to a 2027 launch window for the PS6 (the PS3 was released in 2006 and the PS4 was released in 2013), and the industry consensus is that it will ship in time for the 2027 holiday season, there are starting to be signs that it could be mid 2028 instead:
Our money is on Sony opting for a 2028 window. By doing so, Sony extends PS5/PS5 Pro’s life, lets the Project Amethyst‑style hardware mature into something mind-boggling, and aligns the PS6 with a more stable post‑GTA‑6 landscape.
Here’s how our expert panel reacted to this prediction:
CEO. This prediction tracks what I’m hearing in platform briefings and from analysts. A longer PS5/PS5 Pro cycle gives us more runway to recoup AAA budgets—but it also means another few years of intense competition for store placement and subscription visibility on current‑gen hardware. I’m not loving my console business right now.
Pundit. Sony hasn’t given a date for the PS6 yet, but the breadcrumbs are there. TechRadar, GamesRadar, Tom’s Guide, and a slew of rumor coverage all converge on a 2027–2028 window, with many insiders leaning 2028.
Extra Bonus Observation: 2028 Will Be the Beginning of the Next Video Game Boom
These last two predictions, that the Neuralink will eventually become a gaming platform and that the PS6 will be released in 2028 (with amazing hardware features), can really be combined together, along with the continued growth of VR and AR gaming and the rumored 2028 Xbox release, to predict that “2028 will be the year when the platform shifts really happen.”
When you combine that with the emerging world of weird ads and micro-targeting, the increased maturity of AI toolchains, and the coming enormous revenue expansion predicted by Owen Mahoney, it feels like 2028 is going to be the start of a sustained boom period for video games.
For the most part, the gaming industry runs on a yearly cyclical cadence (there are large-scale decades-long trends and patterns, such as Joost Van Dreunen’s Play Pendulum, but the yearly cycles are how the industry self-organizes). So, for example, if it’s March, it’s time for GDC (and welcome once again, my friends, to the Game Revenue Optimization Mini-Summit). And if it’s December, it’s time for the pundits to gather round and tell us what will happen in the coming year.
Right now we’re in the prelude before the prediction bonanza, the calm before the storm, that long moment when the baby has been dropped on the floor but has not yet started screaming. It’s the time of the year when the people who made the predictions ‘fess up and talk about why they were right (and how it was reality that got it badly wrong).
That’s what this is. We made some predictions last year, and we’ve been thinking hard about what’s coming next year. But we owe it to you, dear reader, to let you know how we did and to let you draw your own conclusions about how seriously to take our next set of predictions.
How We Evaluated the Predictions
We evaluated our predictions along two distinct axes:
Correctness. Were we right? Did our predictions come true? If what we said wasn’t true, you’d have good reason to ignore our upcoming set of predictions.
Completeness. Did we miss anything important? Part of the value of predicting is not just being right, it’s covering all the important events. If we were running the country and we predicted an increase in street traffic but completely missed an attack by an army of CHUD (Cannibalistic Humanoid Underground Dwellers), you’d probably wonder whether we were the right leaders.
(as a side-note, we apologize to the fans of the undergraduate logic curriculum, who are no doubt saddened that we omitted compactness as a third evaluation criteria)
Separately, there’s also the question of who evaluates the predictions. The pattern in years past, and in most of the gaming industry press, is for the predictors to self-evaluate. That is, the people who make the predictions mostly get to decide whether they did a good job.
But we’ve been told that AI changes everything. Since 2025 is the year of agentic AI, we decided to have ChatGPT (5.1, pro) evaluate our predictions using three distinct personas.
Our expert panel was comprised of generative AI simulations of:
A CEO of a small to midsize gaming company that is struggling to stay afloat during industry hard times.
An industry pundit with deep knowledge of the space and a regular platform (e.g. blog or substack).
An external observer, not working in the games industry but with some knowledge of the space and working in an adjacent industry, who feels somewhat skeptical about the value of year-end predictions.
Each of these personas was given the task of scoring us on both correctness and completeness.
We Were Mostly Correct
After a hearty breakfast, we convened the panel for the initial round of deliberations. Here’s the short version: We made 7 predictions. 6 came true; one came close.
The Expert Panel, Debating Correctness (Taken During the Morning Session)
Here’s the detailed table:
Prediction
CEO Evaluation
Pundit Evaluation
Skeptical Observer Evaluation
Our Reaction
There will be more revenue.
This prediction has basically come true in headline terms … However, that does not mean 2025 feels like a boom.
Accurate, but unexciting.
Global games revenue is higher in 2025 than in 2024, but 3 to 4 percent growth against similar levels of inflation yields only a small real gain.
Yes! We nailed it!
Mobile UA teams will keep leaning on MMM, often without proper validation.
Directionally right.
Mostly correct, but a bit pessimistic.
Agree with the prediction’s spirit that many teams cling to MMM without sufficient experimentation
Nailed it again!
No new Top 100 mobile games without web shops will add one in 2025.
Whether or not literally zero new Top 100 titles launched web shops in 2025 is hard to verify from public information and irrelevant.
Too strongly worded but directionally plausible.
The more meaningful observation is that web shops have rapidly become yet another layer of complexity in mobile monetization.
We weren’t wrong!
Web storefronts will see big gains from experimentation and personalization.
This prediction rings true in spirit. The 2025 ecosystem of DTC tooling, analytics integrations, and vendor case studies all pushes toward more experimentation and segmentation on web storefronts.
Partially correct but slightly overstated.
The prediction sounds plausible but I question whether, across the whole of mobile gaming in 2025, this really counts as one of the defining revenue growth engines.
Still not wrong! We’re 4 for 4 so far!
AR and VR will finally gain significant traction.
AR and VR do have more momentum in 2025 than a few years ago, but the impact on my business is still limited.
Broadly right. The data clearly show a meaningful upswing in AR or VR and smart glasses shipments in 2025, with AI enabled glasses emerging as a genuinely new category.
The prediction captures a real uptick in momentum but exaggerates how decisive 2025 is as a turning point.
Yes! Right again!
Alternative app stores will exceed 10 percent of western mobile gaming installs.
Overly optimistic about adoption speed. In 2025, alternative stores are a real strategic consideration, especially for EU focused titles and for Android in markets where OEM or carrier stores matter.
Almost certainly incorrect given the data available in late 2025.
A classic case of over extrapolating from regulatory headlines. Changing default distribution behavior for hundreds of millions of mainstream users is extremely difficult.
Ouch. These judges are tough.
Selling physical goods in game will stop being surprising.
Largely accurate but unevenly distributed across the industry and irrelevant to me.
Mostly correct given how 2025 has unfolded.
Agree that 2025 made the idea of buying physical goods inside games feel more normal.
Yes! Back on track and 6 for 7 overall!
But We Missed Three Big Trends
After lunch, we reconvened the expert panel to discuss the harder question: What did we miss?
The Expert Panel After Lunch, Thinking Hard (Mainly About Where to Go for Dinner)
According to our experts, we missed three major trends.
Prediction We Should Have Made
CEO Opinion
Pundit Opinion
Skeptical Observer Opinion
In Our Defense
AI-native game businesses. By late 2025, most commercially serious studios will treat AI as a default part of production and live ops, and the hard problems will be ROI measurement, workflow integration, and governance, not ‘should we use AI?’
My P&L reality in 2025 is that AI is the only lever big enough to offset rising costs and shrinking margins.
2025’s biggest structural shift is that AI is becoming the new production function. The bottleneck in games used to be content; now it’s taste and data quality.
AI is obviously big, but the ROI is opaque at this point.
Platformized Creator Economies. By end of 2025, creator platforms like Roblox and Fortnite will represent a third major commercial pillar alongside traditional PC/console/mobile – with built‑in A/B testing, regional pricing, and engagement-based payouts that make them some of the most data‑instrumented game economies on earth.
In 2025, a real strategic choice is: do we become a ‘studio on a platform’ (Roblox, UEFN) instead? This is new and a significant challenge.
This is the blind spot: you treated platforms mainly as distribution and webshops, not as competing economic systems.
Maybe. But are these ecosystems net-new value, or just reshuffling time and money away from other games?
What can we say? After VR and then Web3, we are skeptical of platform shifts and overlooked this one.
Hybrid Monetization is the New Norm. In 2025, the median successful game will be running at least two monetization models (e.g. ads + IAP, or IAP + sub), and platform-level subscriptions will keep pulling value out of pure à‑la‑carte spending. The hard problem moves from ‘which model?’ to ‘how do we optimize LTV across overlapping ones?’”
Your predictions focused on ‘more revenue’ and DTC mechanics but didn’t explicitly call out how messy monetization design has become.
Hybrid monetization and subscription stacking are now the design constraint for game businesses.
I don’t like it. This is starting to look like game design is just financial engineering. Games are not spreadsheets.
This is business as usual and not “prediction-worthy.” Hybrid monetization was well-established heading into 2025 and isn’t really a trend. And, anyway, Tiffany Keller covered it extensively at our Game Revenue Optimization Mini-Summit in 2025.
In Conclusion
We were reasonably accurate — for the most part, the things we predicted did happen. At the same time, the events we didn’t predict are significant omissions. While our 2025 predictions captured the headline moves in revenue, UA, and monetization, our AI panel rightly called out the deeper structural shifts around AI‑native production, platformized creator economies, and hybrid monetization. It’s reasonable to say that we predicted the linear trends (that we forecasted correctly based on existing trends), but failed to anticipate the bigger non-linear shifts that will cause significant structural changes in the gaming industry.
As we head into the next prediction cycle, we’ll keep treating predictions as hypotheses to be tested, not pronouncements from on high—and we’ll try to be more explicit about the big picture changes and large-scale changes we missed this year.
As we head into 2025, one thing is clear: the gaming industry has no shortage of would-be-Nostradamuses. Predictions are flying by at high speed, sometimes as lists on LinkedIn and sometimes as full-fledged articles.
Image by Terrence Dorsey
I made my own predictions, Seven Things That Are Really Going To Happen in 2025, last week. This week, to help everyone get a sense of what’s coming, the team gathered a few of our favorite prediction articles into a single list.
The brain trust at Deconstructor of Fun has come out with their 6 Predictions. They have a strong focus on geopolitical trends, and also think we’re headed for a new era of AI realism. They also have a set of Mobile Games Marketing Predictions that are interesting.
MIDiA Research published five trends they think are key, including an interesting take on the rise of portable devices. Everyone expects the Switch 2 to ship. But … Microsoft and Sony shipping portable devices as well? That is a bold prediction.
Every year around this time, you see the same two things happen. People make New Year’s Resolutions about how they will change their lives. And they make predictions about how the world will change. Oddly enough, both activities are often highly repetitive – “This year I will lose 20 pounds” is repeated almost as frequently as “This is the year that Applovin will buy Unity.”
Here at Game Data Pros, we’re not immune. We, too, have resolutions and predictions. But since we’re experts in Game Revenue Optimization (and not, for example, in game design or large-scale M&A), our industry predictions are focused entirely on game revenue.
If you want help leveraging any of these trends, or simply want to talk revenue optimization, please don’t hesitate to contact us.
And now, without any further ado … here’s seven things that are really going to happen in 2025.
This is the most straightforward prediction and probably the least controversial: Sales will go up.
It’s easy to lose sight of the revenue numbers in the face of widespread industry problems. For example, 2024 was the third straight year of record layoffs in the video game industry. Matthew Ball shared a nice visual of the layoff trend on X.
Figure 1. Record Game Layoffs. Source: Matt Ball.
But at the same time, industry revenue has never been higher and has never been healthier.
Digital Entertainment in 2024. $1 Trillion in consumer spending.
Gaming in 2024. At least 25% of that.
Digital Entertainment in 2028. $3.8 trillion in consumer spending.
Gaming in 2028. At least 25% of that.
Figure 2. Digital entertainment forecast from AWS re:Invent 2024.
Restating that: Amazon forecasts that gaming will be a $800 billion industry in 2028.
Mobile UA teams will continue to use MMMs for ROAS, and many teams will not experiment with or empirically validate their models
A strange thing happened in gaming between 1990 and 2020. Marketing precision first improved dramatically and then regressed almost as dramatically.
In 1990, marketers bought ads and knew they worked, but they didn’t have a good idea of which ads worked or how effective a particular ad was. John Wanamaker, a famous merchant from the 1800’s, once described this way of advertising with the quip “Half the money I spend on advertising is wasted; the trouble is, I don’t know which half.”
As advertising became digital and performance marketing gained traction, that changed. This was especially true in mobile gaming—in 2017, by using IDFAs and other forms of deterministic attribution, you could start to precisely measure which ads a user saw and attribute installs to ads (it wasn’t perfect, but it was good. Possibly very good).
Marketers reacted quickly by resuming their use of observational causal inference models to measure advertising effectiveness.
Unfortunately, however, the problem of misinformation originating from observational causal inference in business analytics is serious.
None of the “Top 100” mobile games that don’t already have a web storefront will implement one in 2025
This prediction is really an observation: Web storefronts have already achieved peak penetration. From which it follows that there won’t be a lot of new large-scale web storefronts coming on line in 2025.
To understand the observation: 2024 was the year that web storefronts got everyone’s attention. Perhaps most dramatically, Appcharge analyzed web store adoption rates in mobile games and discovered that 72 of the top 100 mobile games already had a web storefront. Appcharge also discovered that adoption varied widely by genre: 100% of social casinos had web storefronts, but only 30% of casual games had web storefronts.
The early and middle adopters have already adopted. 72% is already a high number.
Web storefronts aren’t free—they require implementation and maintenance and often require changes to game design.
To make the web storefront decision profitable, the game needs the players to make their purchases at the web storefront. The challenges involved in shifting purchase traffic can be significant.
In general, any game whose IAP revenue profile involves large numbers of players making small and infrequent impulse purchases will find it hard to move purchase traffic to a web storefront.
Given the compelling monetary incentives associated to web storefronts in general, we think that most of the top 100 games that don’t have a web storefront already have made a rational decision that web storefronts won’t work for them.
Web Storefronts Will Achieve Significant Revenue Growth by Adopting Experimentation and Personalization
But, still, 72% of the top 100 mobile games have a web storefront. As the game teams gain experience with their storefronts and add more functionality, the possibilities for personalization-driven revenue growth are enormous. The most significant revenue growth driver in mobile games in 2025 will be the widespread adoption of experimentation-based personalization regimes.
There is an interesting question, though—Eric has emphasized the value of experimentation and personalization since 2022, and GDP grew out of our experiences doing personalized pricing and bundling at Scientific Revenue from 2013 to 2019. Why aren’t all web stores personalized already? Why do we think this the primary avenue for revenue growth in 2025?
The answer is simple: first, you have to build the store. As Stash put it in their case study, these things have a lifecycle.
Figure 5. Stash Lifecycle. First, you build the store, then you market it, and then you personalize it.
This can take years to execute.
AR/VR will finally gain significant traction, making revenue optimization an even more difficult problem
This is probably the first controversial prediction: AR/VR is on the verge of a breakthrough. It may not happen in 2025, but by the end of the year, everyone will agree that the momentum is real.
Even if you assume linear growth over the 2024 numbers, you’re looking at 15 to 20 million units sold. Admittedly, this is nothing compared to mobile phones, but it is roughly the number of PlayStation 5s that Sony sold in 2024 (and, given that we’re in the back end of the console lifecycle, more than Sony will sell in 2025).
It seems like a very bad bet to assume that amidst all those people, nothing compelling will emerge.
Of course, this is terrible news if you’re trying to build a global, long-term revenue optimization platform for gaming. Modeling the LTV impact of Console <-> Meta cross-play is the stuff of statistical nightmares..
Alternative App stores will be more than 10% of the Western mobile gaming market by install
2024 was the year of the webstore in mobile gaming. And a previous prediction was a about the rise of personalization in webstores. But there’s another equally compelling trend happening because of Epic. Epic’s almost-quixotic legal battles to open up distribution and on-deck purchases are being quietly resolved in Epic’s favor.
The resolution in Europe is happening via regulation. The European Union’s Digital Markets Act (DMA), which came into effect in 2024, introduces regulations to enhance competition and limit the dominance of major tech platforms, referred to as “gatekeepers” by the DMA. A key provision of the DMA requires these gatekeepers to permit the installation of alternative app stores on their devices, thereby reducing their control over app distribution.
It will become ordinary for games to sell physical goods and game-related merchandise in-game
Quietly, almost stealthily, Amazon released Amazon Anywhere in 2023. The idea is simple: it’s a way for developers to incorporate Amazon e-commerce from within their games or apps easily. That is, it’s a way for players to easily buy goods from Amazon without leaving the game.
The first use was with “Peridot,” an augmented reality game developed by Niantic in which players can buy Peridot-branded merchandise directly within the game.
Amazon explains it this way: “Developers and creators are able to broaden in-game or in-app environments to offer more than digital products, opening up a new way to engage their audiences without worrying about selection, shipping, or fulfillment. Instead, they can focus on creating incredible experiences.”
We see this as being related to the following trends:
There is an increasing industry focus on cross-platform strategies that leverage IP to create growth. At the recent GamesBeat Next in October, the growth conversation began with “Beloved IPs are Crossing between Games and Other Mediums”
Relatedly, many companies from other verticals are focusing on video games. While it would be incorrect to say companies like Mattel, Sands, and Hasbro are new to video games, they are now paying unprecedented attention to them.
Figure 7. IP and Transmedia Were Projected to Be a Major Source of Growth at GamesBeat Next
Both of these trends mean that experimentation with “Play the game, buy the plushie” is inevitable. We don’t think this will become a common or standard practice in 2025, but we do think it will no longer be surprising when we see it.
